Copper Ore Bridge Accident in DRC Kills 49, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Tuesday, November 18, 2025

Futures: LME copper opened at $10,796/mt overnight, fluctuated upward initially and touched a high of $10,817/mt, then its price center gradually moved down to a low of $10,756.5/mt, fluctuated rangebound subsequently and finally closed at $10,766.5/mt, down 0.73%, with trading volume at 16,000 lots and open interest at 324,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2512 opened at 86,440 yuan/mt overnight, touched a high of 86,530 yuan/mt initially, then the copper price center gradually moved down to a low of 86,160 yuan/mt, fluctuated considerably subsequently and finally closed at 86,320 yuan/mt, down 0.1%, with trading volume at 20,000 lots and open interest at 177,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On November 15, Saturday, a bridge collapsed at a copper mine in the southeast of the DRC. The accident occurred at the Kalando mining site in Lualaba province, resulting in 49 deaths and 20 people seriously injured and sent to hospital.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On November 17, SMM #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the front-month 2511 contract were 10-200 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 105 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM #1 copper cathode price was 86,300-86,720 yuan/mt. In the morning, the SHFE copper 2511 contract fluctuated between 86,280-86,600 yuan/mt, and the SHFE copper 2512 contract fluctuated between 86,330-86,690 yuan/mt. During the morning trading session, the inter-month price spread fluctuated between a discount of 100 yuan/mt and a discount of 50 yuan/mt. Shanghai experienced destocking over the weekend, mainly due to fewer arrivals of imported and domestic copper. Spot copper in Shanghai is expected to trade mainly around parity this week. Supply of high-quality copper is limited, and its premium is expected to remain high, around 100 yuan/mt.

(2) Guangdong: On November 17, spot prices of Guangdong #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 10 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 100-60 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 80 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 86,410 yuan/mt, down 570 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 86,320 yuan/mt, down 575 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, market activity was moderate on the delivery day, and spot premiums edged down.

(3) Imported copper: On November 17, warrant prices were $26-38/mt, QP December, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $41-53/mt, QP November, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was -$6/mt to $4/mt, QP November, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day. The quotes referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late November.

(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on November 17, the futures closing price was 86,570 yuan/mt, down 480 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 105 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials fell 200 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 78,300-78,600 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,271 yuan/mt, down 217 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,580 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, secondary copper rod enterprises reported that since secondary copper rod is discounted by over 1,000 yuan/mt against the futures contract daily, and the discount for bare bright copper including tax against the futures contract is around 1,300 yuan/mt, coupled with traders holding large inventories of secondary copper rod, secondary copper rod enterprises need to further reduce their selling prices by 200-300 yuan/mt below the market price to make sales. Ultimately, the selling price of secondary copper rod is no different from that of bare bright copper including tax. Many secondary copper rod enterprises lament that the price of recycled copper raw materials is too high, and there is essentially no profit in selling secondary copper rod.

(5) Inventory: On November 14, LME copper cathode inventory increased by 325 mt to 136,050 mt; on November 17, SHFE warrant inventory increased by 7,135 mt to 56,965 mt.

Price: On the macro front, US Fed officials' policy stances remain divergent. Vice Chair Jefferson emphasized the need for caution regarding employment risks, while Governor Waller supported a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in December. Policy uncertainty has cooled market expectations for near-term rate cuts, pushing the US dollar index to continue its rebound and putting copper prices under pressure. On the fundamentals, supply side, arrivals of imported and domestic supplies were limited. Demand side, downstream purchasing sentiment was weak. Inventory side, as of Monday, November 17, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions across China decreased by 7,300 mt WoW to 193,800 mt. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]